12 Fastest Growing Economies of 2011

There are somereal surprises here.  Yet even the blinddumb and stupid can make the same calculation made in China thirty years ago and in India twenty years ago and Brazil ten years ago.
By hook and bycrook, educate and empower your people with a little capital and get the hellout of the way.  They will take care ofthe rest and the developed world will jumpstart it all with knowledge.
It is reallysimple.  Just building out what hasalready been invented elsewhere is good enough for the first forty years togrow like crazy with almost no risk. After all you can get the rag factory of the shelf, feed in workers andship product tomorrow to your countrymen and offshore for your own foreignexchange.  None of this inventingnonsense is called for.
Ghana is a big surprise and I am sure we willsoon see Kenyaon the list. Liberiahas become respectable only several years after war and the establishment ofsound government.
China is nowrunning out of room, but this will likely be a slow diminishment.

12 Fastest Growing Economies of2011
9 December 2010.

Our most populararticle in 2009, some would say not surprisingly,  was projections for the‘12 Fastest Growing Economies in 2010’.

So what’s in store for2011?

Let's polish thecrystal ball and take a look.

As our source, we havetaken a look at the data on the Economic Statistics database here at EconomyWatch.com.The data points come from the IMF’s tracker of GDP Growth inconstant prices in the national currency (not converted to US dollars).

For 2010, we notedthat none of the top growth countries were advanced economies; only one wasG20.

Many people assumethat Chinais the fastest growing country in the world, but that is not the case - it isthe fastest growing larget economy, and as we willsee that is a different thing.

We also took a look atthe key trends that are driving the growth figures.

While trends arefollowing through as projected, you may be surprised at who is now leading thepack in terms of economic growth -not a country that is normally thought of in those terms.

Let’s take a look atthe stats for 2011:

Economic Indicator Listing in Year 2011

20.146 %

14.337 %

12.178 %

9.908 %

9.003 %

8.43 %

8.251 %

7.873 %

7.663 %

7.548 %

7.4 %

7.395 %

And compelling readingit makes once again.

Growth rates are muchhigher this year. The chart tops out at over 20%. Last year we saw a projected high of 16.4% from growth leader Qatar.

Once again, developedcountries do not feature in the Top 12. Almost half of the top 12 come from Africa. Ghana has swept from 4.5% last year, to anastonishing 20.146% for 2011.

One third of the Top12 are from the Far East; two from the Middle East and one from Central Asia.

In 2010 there was onlyone G20 nation in the Top 12. This time India also makes the grade. This isthe beginning of a larger trend.

With China’s aging population and India’s young demographic India’s growth rate will overtake China’s within10 years, as it will start to enjoy a “demographic dividend.” However India will not be without its own challenges asour Chief Political Economist David Caploe points out here in his article India: One Child Policy?

What can we make ofthese trends? What is the reality behind the statistics?

1.    TheAfrican decade continues to hold sway. 2010to 2020 is bringing massive development to the continent. As China continuesto boom we will see the Chinese offer more large-scale infrastructuredevelopment to African governments inreturn for natural resources and farmland to support it’s vast population. Inturn African countries are continuing to challenge old perceptions ofcorruption and violence through practicing better governance. Chart leader Ghana is one of Africa’sstrongest democracies. African countries will continue to veer in favor ofincreased prosperity. The picture continues to be replacement of Western aidfor Africa by Eastern trade with Africa.

2.    Whowoulda thunk it! Energy is still Key. Notsurprisingly energy continues to play a key role. We expect this trend tocontinue with the advent of “peak oil” and the continuing upward trend in oiland natural gas prices. Countries like Qatarand Azerbaijanwith their huge natural gas andoil reserves will continue to boom.

3.    Populationgrowth. Rapid populationgrowth is a key factor in economic growth. The countries with some of thehighest rates of population growth in the world dominate the growth chart. Astheir economies mature, expect to see this trend slow down somewhat for thesecountries.

4.    A lowgrowth base offers more opportunity for expansion. This explains the lack of highly developedeconomies in the Top 12. As these markets contend with the credit crisis (oras Dr Dave likes to call it, the Loan Freeze), the ongoing costs ofsupporting an aging population and the law of diminishing returns will ensurethat we will see much higher growth performance from economies that have moreroom to grow.

5.    The peaceand democracy bonanza. Rounding of ourcounter-intuitive list is another perfectly intuitive point. Countries like Ghana who areexperiencing a new era of good governance will enjoy massive growth increases.Where there is peace and good governance, prosperity will follow as we seethese countries making use of their resources more actively and using them tobuild, rather than wage war.

Underdevelopedeconomies will continue to surge ahead for 2011. Mercifully, for the majorityof the world’s population, the gap between rich and poor seems to beclosing. That’s at least three out of five for David’s Top Five Christmas wishes for the world Economyin 2009! Progress…

Juan Abdel Nasser

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